Europe and Santander Bank: 2012 Balance

“Suddenly, it has become easy to see how the euro — that grand, flawed experiment in monetary union without political union — could come apart at the seams,” Krugman wrote in the beginning of 2012. He wasn’t the only one to predict the European Apocalypse.

In “European Jewels: Santander Bank” I said that European Leaders would what was needed to avoid the disaster even if it was their last resort. Now the “Grexit” seems much more unlikely than a couple of months ago when the so called experts predicted Greece exit from the Euro.

The truth is that making bold predictions about anything in politics and economics is usually a great disaster. I made my humble prediction that it was safe to invest in Santander simply because I think that the consequences of an European Break-up can get out of control and the European politicians are afraid that this can cost their reelection, simply as this. My guess was correct and Santander gained 40% since the launch of my book.

For me it was easy to see that it was far less disruptive to allow the possibility of inflation by letting the ECB intervene directly on the sovereign debt crisis than let the meltdown happen. This way I predicted that Santander bank could be valued between 5.66 € and 4.53€. The truth is that begins the year at 6.30 € so I missed my mark… for better.

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